Center for Behavioral Decision Research

CBDR : Seminar Series : Seminar by Leeat Yariv

An Experimental Study of the Rational Voter Paradigm

	presented by Leeat Yariv (Caltech)


	Thursday, May 1	link to paper
	Noon - 1:15
	Porter 223D	link to Speaker's Site

	Abstract:

	We use an array of laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm . that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a simple setup that entails stark theoretical predictions regarding the effects of information pertaining to the distribution of preferences (that, in reality, may be manifested through polls) on costly participation decisions. The experimental data reveal several interesting insights. First, propensity to vote increases systematically with experimental subjects. The more likely they think their preferred alternative is to win, the more likely they are to vote. Consistently, in treatments in which subjects know they are likely to be in the majority, participation is significantly higher. Importantly, from a policy point of view, dispelling information in the electorate, either by polls or by announcing which alternative is likely to be preferred by the majority, improves the overall welfare of groups. The paper suggests a new model of political behavior to unify these experimental and real-world observations. In the model, voters care not only about election outcomes per-se, but also about whether or not their individual vote matches the winning alternative.

	Host at CMU: Roberto Weber