Center for Behavioral Decision Research

CBDR : Seminar Series : Seminar by Jerker Denrell

Learning from Adaptive Samples

	presented by Jerker Denrell (Stanford Graduate School of Business)


	Thursday, January 10	link to paper
	Noon-1:15
	Porter 223D	link to Speaker's Site

	Abstract:

	Individuals and organizations learn from experience by increasing the probability of sampling alternatives with favorable past outcomes and reducing the probability of sampling alternatives with poor past outcomes. Such adaptive sampling is sensible but leads to an asymmetry in experiential learning. Because decision makers continue to sample alternatives they believe are good, errors of overestimating the value of an alternative are likely to be corrected. Because decision makers may avoid alternatives they believe to be poor, errors of underestimation are less likely to be corrected. In this talk, I show how a behavioral model of learning which incorporates this asymmetry can offer an alternative account of several biases in impression formation and decision making, including risk aversion, ingroup bias, and social influence.

	Host at CMU: Moore